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Albacete vs Eibar — Segunda División

Albacete crestAlbacete
Full time1–3
Eibar crestEibar

How the call landed

Segunda División·3 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Albacete crestALB3–0EIBEibar crest
Full time
Albacete crestALB1–3EIBEibar crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSegunda División
Sat 3 Oct · 14:00 SAST
Albacete crestAlbacete
Projected3–0xG 0.70 · 2.50
Eibar crestEibar

No strong lean — near even (40% / 30% / 30%), projecting 3-0.

ALBDrawEIB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 30% / 30%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 0.7–2.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Model projects 0.74–2.51 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EIB

    Model projects 0.74–2.51 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Albacete crest
Albacete
vs
Eibar
Eibar crest
22League position3
4Points22
8Goals for20
22Goals against13
-14Goal difference7

Current SEG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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