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Atalanta vs Sassuolo — Serie A

Atalanta crestAtalanta
Full time2–1
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

How the call landed

Serie A·23 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Atalanta crestATA0–3SASSassuolo crest
Full time
Atalanta crestATA2–1SASSassuolo crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.78

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Sun 23 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Atalanta crestAtalanta
Projected0–3xG 0.60 · 3.40
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

The model leans Sassuolo (88%), projecting 0-3.

ATADrawSAS
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSassuolo win88%
Both teams to scoreNo57%
Total goalsOver 2.575%
Double chanceDraw or Sassuolo96%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Sassuolo (88%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.6–3.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 43%, over 2.5 goals 75%. Model projects 0.60–3.39 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SAS

    Model projects 0.60–3.39 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~75% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Atalanta crest
Atalanta
vs
Sassuolo
Sassuolo crest
12League position15
11Points8
16Goals for14
17Goals against22
-1Goal difference-8

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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