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Atalanta vs Bologna — Serie A

Atalanta crestAtalanta
Full time1–0
Bologna crestBologna

How the call landed

Serie A·31 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Atalanta crestATA0–1BOLBologna crest
Full time
Atalanta crestATA1–0BOLBologna crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Mon 31 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Atalanta crestAtalanta
Projected0–1xG 1.30 · 1.10
Bologna crestBologna

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

ATADrawBOL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreNo50%
Total goalsUnder 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.3–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 44%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Atalanta crest
Atalanta
vs
Bologna
Bologna crest
12League position11
11Points11
16Goals for12
17Goals against12
-1Goal difference0

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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