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Genoa vs Napoli — Serie A

Genoa crestGenoa
Full time0–2
Napoli crestNapoli

How the call landed

Serie A·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Genoa crestGEN0–1NAPNapoli crest
Full time
Genoa crestGEN0–2NAPNapoli crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 0-2).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Sat 22 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Genoa crestGenoa
Projected0–1xG 0.90 · 1.90
Napoli crestNapoli

The model leans Napoli (58%), projecting 0-1.

GENDrawNAP
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNapoli win58%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceDraw or Napoli83%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Napoli (58%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.9–1.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 0.92–1.85 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NAP

    Model projects 0.92–1.85 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Genoa crest
Genoa
vs
Napoli
Napoli crest
13League position7
10Points14
8Goals for17
13Goals against11
-5Goal difference6

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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