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AC Milan vs Venezia — Serie A

AC Milan crestAC Milan
Full time2–0
Venezia crestVenezia

How the call landed

Serie A·28 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
AC Milan crestAM0–1VENVenezia crest
Full time
AC Milan crestAM2–0VENVenezia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Fri 28 Aug · 20:45 SAST
AC Milan crestAC Milan
Projected0–1xG 0.80 · 1.70
Venezia crestVenezia

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

AMDrawVEN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreNo55%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.8–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 45%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Model projects 0.83–1.65 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → VEN

    Model projects 0.83–1.65 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
vs
Venezia
Venezia crest
5League position20
18Points3
18Goals for6
11Goals against19
7Goal difference-13

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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