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AS Roma vs Atalanta — Serie A

AS Roma crestAS Roma
Full time2–1
Atalanta crestAtalanta

How the call landed

Serie A·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
AS Roma crestAR0–1ATAAtalanta crest
Full time
AS Roma crestAR2–1ATAAtalanta crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Sat 5 Sep · 20:45 SAST
AS Roma crestAS Roma
Projected0–1xG 4.60 · 0.40
Atalanta crestAtalanta

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

ARDrawATA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreNo70%
Total goalsOver 2.583%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 4.6–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 30%, over 2.5 goals 83%. Model projects 4.63–0.38 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AR

    Model projects 4.63–0.38 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

AS Roma crest
AS Roma
vs
Atalanta
Atalanta crest
3League position12
21Points10
23Goals for14
8Goals against15
15Goal difference-1

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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