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Lazio vs Genoa — Serie A

Lazio crestLazio
Full time1–0
Genoa crestGenoa

How the call landed

Serie A·30 Aug
Missed
Model called
Lazio crestLAZ0–1GENGenoa crest
Full time
Lazio crestLAZ1–0GENGenoa crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Sun 30 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Lazio crestLazio
Projected0–1xG 2.10 · 0.90
Genoa crestGenoa

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

LAZDrawGEN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes52%
Total goalsOver 2.557%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 2.1–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 52%, over 2.5 goals 57%. Model projects 2.07–0.89 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LAZ

    Model projects 2.07–0.89 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lazio crest
Lazio
vs
Genoa
Genoa crest
2League position13
25Points10
22Goals for8
7Goals against13
15Goal difference-5

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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