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Juventus vs Parma — Serie A

Juventus crestJuventus
Full time2–0
Parma crestParma

How the call landed

Serie A·29 Aug
Missed
Model called
Juventus crestJUV1–2PARParma crest
Full time
Juventus crestJUV2–0PARParma crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSerie A
Sat 29 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Juventus crestJuventus
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 2.00
Parma crestParma

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 1-2.

JUVDrawPAR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes65%
Total goalsOver 2.566%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 27% / 39%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–2.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 65%, over 2.5 goals 66%. Model projects 1.42–1.99 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAR

    Model projects 1.42–1.99 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~66% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~65% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Juventus crest
Juventus
vs
Parma
Parma crest
8League position18
14Points5
11Goals for5
10Goals against15
1Goal difference-10

Current SA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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