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Panathinaikos vs PAOK — Super League Greece

Panathinaikos crestPanathinaikos
Full time3–1
PAOK crestPAOK

How the call landed

Super League Greece·6 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Panathinaikos crestPAN1–0PAOPAOK crest
Full time
Panathinaikos crestPAN3–1PAOPAOK crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-1).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSuper League Greece
Sun 6 Sep · 20:30 SAST
Panathinaikos crestPanathinaikos
Projected1–0xG 1.80 · 1.00
PAOK crestPAOK

The model leans Panathinaikos (54%), projecting 1-0.

PANDrawPAO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPanathinaikos win54%
Both teams to scoreYes53%
Total goalsOver 2.554%
Double chancePanathinaikos or draw81%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Panathinaikos (54%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.8–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 53%, over 2.5 goals 54%. Model projects 1.83–1.01 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAN

    Model projects 1.83–1.01 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Panathinaikos crest
Panathinaikos
vs
PAOK
PAOK crest
1League position5
21Points15
18Goals for16
4Goals against11
14Goal difference5

Current SLG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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