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Panetolikos vs PAOK — Super League Greece

Panetolikos crestPanetolikos
Full time1–3
PAOK crestPAOK

How the call landed

Super League Greece·20 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Panetolikos crestPAN3–0PAOPAOK crest
Full time
Panetolikos crestPAN1–3PAOPAOK crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-3 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.64

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSuper League Greece
Sun 20 Sep · 20:00 SAST
Panetolikos crestPanetolikos
Projected3–0xG 2.60 · 0.60
PAOK crestPAOK

The model leans Panetolikos (81%), projecting 3-0.

PANDrawPAO
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPanetolikos win81%
Both teams to scoreNo57%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chancePanetolikos or draw94%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Panetolikos (81%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 2.6–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 43%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Model projects 2.62–0.63 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAN

    Model projects 2.62–0.63 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Panetolikos crest
Panetolikos
vs
PAOK
PAOK crest
10League position5
9Points15
8Goals for16
16Goals against11
-8Goal difference5

Current SLG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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