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FC Thun vs Servette FC — Swiss Super League

FC Thun crestFC Thun
Full time2–4
Servette FC crestServette FC

How the call landed

Swiss Super League·16 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
FC Thun crestFT2–1SFServette FC crest
Full time
FC Thun crestFT2–4SFServette FC crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSwiss Super League
Wed 16 Sep · 19:00 SAST
FC Thun crestFC Thun
Projected2–1xG 1.90 · 1.00
Servette FC crestServette FC

The model leans FC Thun (56%), projecting 2-1.

FTDrawSF
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFC Thun win56%
Both teams to scoreYes53%
Total goalsOver 2.554%
Double chanceFC Thun or draw82%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans FC Thun (56%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.9–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 53%, over 2.5 goals 54%. Model projects 1.90–0.96 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FT

    Model projects 1.90–0.96 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

FC Thun crest
FC Thun
vs
Servette FC
Servette FC crest
9League position5
10Points16
19Goals for16
30Goals against14
-11Goal difference2

Current SSL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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