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ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Tunisian Ligue 1

ES Metlaoui crestES Metlaoui
Full time1–0
ES Hammam-Sousse crestES Hammam-Sousse

How the call landed

Tunisian Ligue 1·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
ES Metlaoui crestEM2–0EHSES Hammam-Sousse crest
Full time
ES Metlaoui crestEM1–0EHSES Hammam-Sousse crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-0, finished 1-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.02

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickTunisian Ligue 1
Sat 5 Sep · 17:30 SAST
ES Metlaoui crestES Metlaoui
Projected2–0xG 2.80 · 0.50
ES Hammam-Sousse crestES Hammam-Sousse

The model leans Es Metlaoui (84%), projecting 2-0.

EMDrawEHS
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultEs Metlaoui win84%
Both teams to scoreNo62%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceEs Metlaoui or draw95%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Es Metlaoui (84%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.8–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 38%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 2.78–0.53 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EM

    Model projects 2.78–0.53 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

ES Metlaoui crest
ES Metlaoui
vs
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse crest
15League position16
3Points1
3Goals for2
9Goals against12
-6Goal difference-10

Current TUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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