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ES Tunis vs AS Marsa — Tunisian Ligue 1

ES Tunis crestES Tunis
Full time2–1
AS Marsa crestAS Marsa

How the call landed

Tunisian Ligue 1·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
ES Tunis crestET1–0AMAS Marsa crest
Full time
ES Tunis crestET2–1AMAS Marsa crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 2-1).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickTunisian Ligue 1
Sat 5 Sep · 17:30 SAST
ES Tunis crestES Tunis
Projected1–0xG 1.70 · 1.10
AS Marsa crestAS Marsa

No strong lean — near even (48% / 29% / 23%), projecting 1-0.

ETDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes56%
Total goalsOver 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 29% / 23%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.7–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 56%, over 2.5 goals 55%. Model projects 1.73–1.14 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ET

    Model projects 1.73–1.14 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

ES Tunis crest
ES Tunis
vs
AS Marsa
AS Marsa crest
2League position9
13Points9
10Goals for6
7Goals against4
3Goal difference2

Current TUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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