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Switzerland vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League

Switzerland crestSwitzerland
Full time2–1
Slovenia crestSlovenia

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·3 Oct
Exact score
Model called
Switzerland crestSWI2–1SLOSlovenia crest
Full time
Switzerland crestSWI2–1SLOSlovenia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Nailed the exact scoreline (2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — correct.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Sat 3 Oct · 20:45 SAST
Switzerland crestSwitzerland
Projected2–1xG 3.20 · 1.50
Slovenia crestSlovenia

No strong lean — near even (39% / 26% / 35%), projecting 2-1.

SWIDrawSLO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes74%
Total goalsOver 2.584%
Double chanceNo strong lean65%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 26% / 35%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 3.2–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 74%, over 2.5 goals 84%. Model projects 3.21–1.49 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SWI

    Model projects 3.21–1.49 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~84% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~74% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Switzerland crest
Switzerland
vs
Slovenia
Slovenia crest
1League position2
12Points7
11Goals for5
1Goals against3
10Goal difference2

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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