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Northern Ireland vs Hungary — UEFA Nations League

Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
Full time0–0
Hungary crestHungary

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·28 Sep
Missed
Model called
Northern Ireland crestNI2–1HUNHungary crest
Full time
Northern Ireland crestNI0–0HUNHungary crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.24

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Mon 28 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Hungary crestHungary

No strong lean — near even (49% / 25% / 26%), projecting 2-1.

NIDrawHUN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean49%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean74%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (49% / 25% / 26%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Northern Ireland crest
Northern Ireland
vs
Hungary
Hungary crest
1League position2
8Points7
4Goals for3
0Goals against2
4Goal difference1

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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