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Moldova vs Faroe Islands — UEFA Nations League

Moldova crestMoldova
Full time1–1
Faroe Islands crestFaroe Islands

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·29 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Moldova crestMOL2–1FIFaroe Islands crest
Full time
Moldova crestMOL1–1FIFaroe Islands crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Tue 29 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Moldova crestMoldova
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Faroe Islands crestFaroe Islands

No strong lean — near even (38% / 32% / 30%), projecting 2-1.

MOLDrawFI
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean38%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (38% / 32% / 30%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Moldova crest
Moldova
vs
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands crest
3League position2
4Points4
3Goals for5
8Goals against5
-5Goal difference0

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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