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Hungary vs Georgia — UEFA Nations League

Hungary crestHungary
Full time1–0
Georgia crestGeorgia

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·2 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Draw
Projected score 0–1
Full time
Hungary crestHUN1–0GEOGeorgia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.12

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Fri 2 Oct · 20:45 SAST
Hungary crestHungary
Projected0–1xG 0.40 · 0.40
Georgia crestGeorgia

No strong lean — near even (30% / 35% / 35%), projecting 0-1.

HUNDrawGEO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean35%
Both teams to scoreNo91%
Total goalsUnder 2.597%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (30% / 35% / 35%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.4–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 9%, over 2.5 goals 3%. Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Hungary crest
Hungary
vs
Georgia
Georgia crest
2League position4
7Points2
3Goals for0
2Goals against2
1Goal difference-2

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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