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Finland vs Albania — UEFA Nations League

Finland crestFinland
Full time2–1
Albania crestAlbania

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·3 Oct
Missed
Model called
Finland crestFIN0–1ALBAlbania crest
Full time
Finland crestFIN2–1ALBAlbania crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 SAST
Finland crestFinland
Projected0–1xG 0.20 · 0.20
Albania crestAlbania

No strong lean — near even (28% / 25% / 47%), projecting 0-1.

FINDrawALB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean47%
Both teams to scoreNo98%
Total goalsUnder 2.5100%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (28% / 25% / 47%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 2%, over 2.5 goals 0%. Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Finland crest
Finland
vs
Albania
Albania crest
3League position1
7Points9
9Goals for8
2Goals against3
7Goal difference5

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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