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Northern Ireland vs Georgia — UEFA Nations League

Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
Full time0–0
Georgia crestGeorgia

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·5 Oct
Missed
Model called
Northern Ireland crestNI2–1GEOGeorgia crest
Full time
Northern Ireland crestNI0–0GEOGeorgia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Mon 5 Oct · 20:45 SAST
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
Projected2–1xG 2.20 · 1.00
Georgia crestGeorgia

No strong lean — near even (53% / 35% / 12%), projecting 2-1.

NIDrawGEO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean53%
Both teams to scoreYes56%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceNo strong lean88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (53% / 35% / 12%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.2–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 56%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Model projects 2.21–0.99 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NI

    Model projects 2.21–0.99 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Northern Ireland crest
Northern Ireland
vs
Georgia
Georgia crest
1League position4
8Points2
4Goals for0
0Goals against2
4Goal difference-2

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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