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Netherlands vs Serbia — UEFA Nations League

Netherlands crestNetherlands
Full time2–1
Serbia crestSerbia

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·4 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Netherlands crestNET3–1SERSerbia crest
Full time
Netherlands crestNET2–1SERSerbia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-1, finished 2-1).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Sun 4 Oct · 20:45 SAST
Netherlands crestNetherlands
Projected3–1xG 3.10 · 1.40
Serbia crestSerbia

No strong lean — near even (52% / 36% / 12%), projecting 3-1.

NETDrawSER
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean52%
Both teams to scoreYes71%
Total goalsOver 2.582%
Double chanceNo strong lean88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (52% / 36% / 12%), projecting 3-1.

Projected 3-1 from 3.1–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 71%, over 2.5 goals 82%. Model projects 3.07–1.38 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NET

    Model projects 3.07–1.38 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~82% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~71% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Netherlands crest
Netherlands
vs
Serbia
Serbia crest
1League position4
8Points0
7Goals for3
5Goals against8
2Goal difference-5

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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