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Albania vs San Marino — UEFA Nations League

Albania crestAlbania
Full time2–1
San Marino crestSan Marino

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·6 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Albania crestALB2–0SMSan Marino crest
Full time
Albania crestALB2–1SMSan Marino crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-0, finished 2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.12

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Tue 6 Oct · 20:45 SAST
Albania crestAlbania
Projected2–0xG 2.40 · 0.20
San Marino crestSan Marino

The model leans Albania (65%), projecting 2-0.

ALBDrawSM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAlbania win65%
Both teams to scoreNo87%
Total goalsUnder 2.554%
Double chanceAlbania or draw90%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Albania (65%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.4–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 13%, over 2.5 goals 46%. Model projects 2.35–0.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ALB

    Model projects 2.35–0.15 expected goals

Form & table

Albania crest
Albania
vs
San Marino
San Marino crest
1League position4
9Points0
8Goals for1
3Goals against16
5Goal difference-15

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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