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Serbia vs Netherlands — UEFA Nations League

Serbia crestSerbia
Full time1–2
Netherlands crestNetherlands

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·27 Sep
Missed
Model called
Serbia crestSER1–0NETNetherlands crest
Full time
Serbia crestSER1–2NETNetherlands crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Sun 27 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Serbia crestSerbia
Projected1–0xG 1.10 · 1.00
Netherlands crestNetherlands

No strong lean — near even (41% / 28% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

SERDrawNET
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreNo59%
Total goalsUnder 2.567%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 28% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.1–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 41%, over 2.5 goals 33%. Under 2.5 goals ~67% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~67% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Serbia crest
Serbia
vs
Netherlands
Netherlands crest
4League position1
0Points8
3Goals for7
8Goals against5
-5Goal difference2

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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