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Georgia vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League

Georgia crestGeorgia
Full time0–1
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·25 Sep
Missed
Model called
Georgia crestGEO3–2NINorthern Ireland crest
Full time
Georgia crestGEO0–1NINorthern Ireland crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Fri 25 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Georgia crestGeorgia
Projected3–2xG 2.30 · 2.90
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland

The model leans Georgia (56%), projecting 3-2.

GEODrawNI
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultGeorgia win56%
Both teams to scoreYes85%
Total goalsOver 2.589%
Double chanceGeorgia or draw77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Georgia (56%), projecting 3-2.

Projected 3-2 from 2.3–2.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 85%, over 2.5 goals 89%. Model projects 2.32–2.92 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NI

    Model projects 2.32–2.92 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~89% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~85% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Georgia crest
Georgia
vs
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland crest
4League position1
2Points8
0Goals for4
2Goals against0
-2Goal difference4

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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