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San Marino vs Finland — UEFA Nations League

San Marino crestSan Marino
Full time0–7
Finland crestFinland

How the call landed

UEFA Nations League·26 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
San Marino crestSM3–0FINFinland crest
Full time
San Marino crestSM0–7FINFinland crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-7 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.49

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Nations League
Sat 26 Sep · 18:00 SAST
San Marino crestSan Marino
Projected3–0xG 2.30 · 0.50
Finland crestFinland

The model leans San Marino (70%), projecting 3-0.

SMDrawFIN
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSan Marino win70%
Both teams to scoreNo66%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceSan Marino or draw88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans San Marino (70%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 2.3–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 34%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 2.27–0.48 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SM

    Model projects 2.27–0.48 expected goals

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

San Marino crest
San Marino
vs
Finland
Finland crest
4League position3
0Points7
1Goals for9
16Goals against2
-15Goal difference7

Current UNL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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