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New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship

New Mexico United crestNew Mexico United
Full time2–1
Phoenix Rising crestPhoenix Rising

How the call landed

USL Championship·5 Oct
Exact score
Model called
New Mexico United crestNMU2–1PRPhoenix Rising crest
Full time
New Mexico United crestNMU2–1PRPhoenix Rising crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Nailed the exact scoreline (2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — correct.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.24

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUSL Championship
Mon 5 Oct · 00:00 SAST
New Mexico United crestNew Mexico United
Projected2–1xG 2.00 · 2.00
Phoenix Rising crestPhoenix Rising

The model leans New Mexico United (52%), projecting 2-1.

NMUDrawPR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNew Mexico United win52%
Both teams to scoreYes74%
Total goalsOver 2.575%
Double chanceNew Mexico United or draw77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans New Mexico United (52%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.0–2.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 74%, over 2.5 goals 75%. Over 2.5 goals ~75% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~75% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~74% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

New Mexico United crest
New Mexico United
vs
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising crest
1League position8
52Points40
45Goals for45
34Goals against46
11Goal difference-1

Current USL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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