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Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship

Loudoun United crestLoudoun United
Full time1–1
Indy Eleven crestIndy Eleven

How the call landed

USL Championship·4 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Loudoun United crestLU2–1IEIndy Eleven crest
Full time
Loudoun United crestLU1–1IEIndy Eleven crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.21

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUSL Championship
Sun 4 Oct · 00:00 SAST
Loudoun United crestLoudoun United
Projected2–1xG 2.20 · 2.40
Indy Eleven crestIndy Eleven

No strong lean — near even (46% / 23% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

LUDrawIE
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreYes80%
Total goalsOver 2.583%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (46% / 23% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.2–2.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 80%, over 2.5 goals 83%. Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~80% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Loudoun United crest
Loudoun United
vs
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven crest
10League position9
31Points34
38Goals for35
48Goals against41
-10Goal difference-6

Current USL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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