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Salisbury vs Sholing — FA Cup

Salisbury crestSalisbury
Full time6–0
Sholing crestSholing

How the call landed

FA Cup·7 Nov
Result hit
Model called
Salisbury crestSAL2–0SHOSholing crest
Full time
Salisbury crestSAL6–0SHOSholing crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-0, finished 6-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 6-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 7 Nov · 17:00 SAST
Salisbury crestSalisbury
Projected2–0xG 2.50 · 0.20
Sholing crestSholing

The model leans Salisbury (60%), projecting 2-0.

SALDrawSHO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSalisbury win60%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceSalisbury or draw72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Salisbury (60%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.5–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 2.52–0.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SAL

    Model projects 2.52–0.15 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Salisbury winH 59% · D 14% · A 28%Projected 2–0xG 2.52–0.15
    model random-forest@v7
  2. Revision 1Live at kickoff
    Salisbury winH 60% · D 12% · A 28%Projected 2–0xG 2.52–0.15
    model random-forest@v8

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