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Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted — FA Cup

Mon 9 Nov21:30SAST

The model’s prediction

Featured pickFA Cup
Mon 9 Nov · 21:30 SAST
Plymouth Parkway crestPlymouth Parkway
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 0.20
Berkhamsted crestBerkhamsted

No strong lean — near even (52% / 16% / 32%), projecting 1-0.

PPDrawBER
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean52%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceNo strong lean68%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (52% / 16% / 32%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Double chance

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Plymouth Parkway winH 52% · D 16% · A 31%Projected 1–0xG 0.15–0.15
    model random-forest@v7
  2. Revision 1
    Plymouth Parkway winH 53% · D 16% · A 32%Projected 1–0xG 0.15–0.15
    model random-forest@v7
  3. Revision 2Current
    Plymouth Parkway winH 52% · D 16% · A 32%Projected 1–0xG 0.15–0.15
    model random-forest@v8

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