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Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde — FA Cup

Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town
Full time1–4
AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde

How the call landed

FA Cup·7 Nov
2 markets hit
Model called
Harrogate Town crestHT1–0AFAFC Fylde crest
Full time
Harrogate Town crestHT1–4AFAFC Fylde crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 7 Nov · 17:00 SAST
Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town
Projected1–0xG 0.70 · 1.30
AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde

No strong lean — near even (39% / 23% / 38%), projecting 1-0.

HTDrawAF
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 23% / 38%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.7–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 0.67–1.33 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AF

    Model projects 0.67–1.33 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Harrogate Town winH 44% · D 20% · A 36%Projected 1–0xG 0.53–1.47
    model random-forest@v7
  2. Revision 1Live at kickoff
    Harrogate Town winH 39% · D 23% · A 38%Projected 1–0xG 0.67–1.33
    model random-forest@v8

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