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Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town — FA Cup

Chesterfield crestChesterfield
Full time4–3
Yeovil Town crestYeovil Town

How the call landed

FA Cup·7 Nov
Result hit
Model called
Chesterfield crestCHE3–2YTYeovil Town crest
Full time
Chesterfield crestCHE4–3YTYeovil Town crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-2, finished 4-3).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 4-3 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 7 Nov · 17:00 SAST
Chesterfield crestChesterfield
Projected3–2xG 2.60 · 4.40
Yeovil Town crestYeovil Town

No strong lean — near even (41% / 27% / 32%), projecting 3-2.

CHEDrawYT
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceNo strong lean68%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 27% / 32%), projecting 3-2.

Projected 3-2 from 2.6–4.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 2.63–4.36 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → YT

    Model projects 2.63–4.36 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Chesterfield winH 40% · D 25% · A 35%Projected 3–2xG 2.80–4.19
    model random-forest@v7
  2. Revision 1Live at kickoff
    Chesterfield winH 41% · D 27% · A 32%Projected 3–2xG 2.63–4.36
    model random-forest@v8

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