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Carlisle vs Salford City — FA Cup

Carlisle crestCarlisle
Full time1–0
Salford City crestSalford City

How the call landed

FA Cup·7 Nov
Missed
Model called
Carlisle crestCAR1–2SCSalford City crest
Full time
Carlisle crestCAR1–0SCSalford City crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickFA Cup
Sat 7 Nov · 17:00 SAST
Carlisle crestCarlisle
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 1.40
Salford City crestSalford City

No strong lean — near even (36% / 18% / 46%), projecting 1-2.

CARDrawSC
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceNo strong lean64%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (36% / 18% / 46%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Salford City winH 32% · D 16% · A 52%Projected 1–2xG 1.35–1.35
    model random-forest@v7
  2. Revision 1Live at kickoff
    Salford City winH 36% · D 18% · A 46%Projected 1–2xG 1.35–1.35
    model random-forest@v8

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